Six lessons for Karnataka parties from the verdicts in Gujarat and Himachal

India

oi-Dr. Sandeep Shastri

The
vote
gap
between
the
Congress
and
BJP
was
less
than
one
percentage
point.
Yet
there
was
a
clear
pattern
in
voting
when
viewed
from
the
lens
of
the
economic
status
of
the
voter.

Much
has
been
written
about
the
preferences
exercised
by
the
voters
in
Gujarat
and
Himachal
Pradesh
as
also
the
Municipal
Corporation
of
Delhi
(MCD).
In
the
complex
jigsaw
puzzle
that
is
India,
each
state
is
truly
unique
and
different.
The
electoral
outcomes
in
the
28
states
of
India
are
determined
by
a
unique
set
of
distinct
factors.
Yet,
are
there
any
lessons
that
the
political
parties
and
electoral
strategists
in
Karnataka
can
learn
from
the
recent
electoral
outcomes?
This
month’s
column
highlights
six
key
lessons
that
can
be
drawn
for
Karnataka
from
the
last
set
of
elections
held
in
2022.
This
analysis
is
not
merely
based
on
aggregate
data
but
also
draws
inferences
from
the
Lokniti-CSDS
post
poll
studies
in
Gujarat
and
Himachal
Pradesh.

The
first
factor
that
merits
attention
is
the
advantages
and
challenges
of
being
the
ruling
party.
Like
Karnataka,
in
Gujarat,
Himachal
and
MCD
the
BJP
was
the
ruling
party.
It
retained
one
state,
lost
another
to
the
Congress
and
conceded
the
third
to
AAP.
Retaining
power
in
a
state
once
is
already
in
power,
requires
a
specific
focus
on
the
performance
of
the
state
government.
The
BJP
has
been
focusing
what
it
terms
as
the
advantage
of
a
double-engine
government.
In
Gujarat,
the
central
engine
was
powerful
enough
to
pull
the
state
engine
along.
In
Himachal,
the
central
engine
could
not
manage
to
help
the
state
engine
cross
the
finish
line.
In
MCD,
some
would
say
it
was
the
AAP
double
engine
that
clicked.

The
second
lesson
that
is
vital
for
Karnataka
is
the
implications
of
a
similar
trend
that
is
seen
in
Himachal
Pradesh
and
Karnataka.
Both
states
have
a
revolving
door
policy
of
not
electing
a
ruling
party
with
a
clear
majority.
This
is
the
trend
in
Karnataka
after
1985
and
in
Himachal
Pradesh
it
is
the
trend
since
the
state
was
formed
(save
once)
in
1971.
The
BJP
made
a
strong
effort
to
reverse
this
trend
in
Himachal
Pradesh
but
was
unsuccessful.
The
factors
that
came
in
the
way
of
the
BJP
in
Himachal
Pradesh
(as
reasoned
in
this
column)
could
well
provide
pointers
for
a
Karnataka
strategy
for
both
the
ruling
BJP
as
well
a
the
lead
opposition,
the
Congress
and
the
third
player
the
Janata
Dal
(S).

Can
BJP
overcome
infighting
to
win
Karnataka?

A
third
factor
that
assumes
salience
in
the
analysis
of
the
electoral
battles
in
Gujarat
and
Himachal
are
the
focus
on
the
party
and
the
candidate.
In
Gujarat
and
in
Himachal
Pradesh,
the
focus
of
the
BJP
was
clearly
on
the
party
and
its
central
leadership
through
out
the
campaign.
In
Himachal,
the
party
refrained
from
announcing
a
Chief
Ministerial
candidate
and
in
Gujarat
it
did
not
seem
to
matter.
In
Gujarat
the
party
was
propelled
to
power
on
the
strength
of
its
central
leadership.
Every
candidate
sought
support
in
the
name
of
the
Prime
Minister.
The
Himachal
Pradesh
campaign
shows
that
the
Congress
appears
to
have
scored
an
upper
hand
because
its
supporters
tended
to
give
as
much
weight
to
the
candidate
as
they
did
to
the
party.
The
Lokniti-CSDS
survey
indicates
that
nine
of
every
ten
respondents
in
Himachal
underscored
the
importance
of
the
candidate
when
deciding
whom
to
vote
for.
The
strategies
that
the
parties
would
adopt
in
Karnataka
remains
crucial.
Would
there
be
an
exclusive
focus
on
the
party
or
would
they
want
to
showcase
the
strength
and
merit
of
their
individual
candidates?
This
has
implications
for
the
next
factor
under
discussion.

Factor
four
is
clearly
the
pitch
of
the
campaign.
Both
in
Gujarat
and
Himachal
Pradesh
it
was
clear
from
the
Lokniti-CSDS
poll,
that
the
committed
voters
of
the
party
decided
well
before
the
start
of
the
campaign
as
to
who
they
would
vote
for.
The
undecided
voters
took
a
call
a
few
days
before
the
end
of
the
campaign.
In
both
states
this
had
an
impact.
In
Gujarat,
it
contributed
to
the
massive
mandate
that
the
BJP
received.
In
Himachal
Pradesh
the
one
percent
tilt
in
favour
of
the
Congress
was
on
account
of
the
swing
voter
who
decided
at
the
last
minute.
Thus
the
campaign
is
crucial.
In
Himachal
Pradesh
the
Congress
focused
on
local
issues
which
gave
it
a
slight
advantage.
The
BJP
campaign
was
exclusively
on
the
performance
record
of
its
Central
government
and
on
national
issues.
In
Karnataka,
how
would
parties
pitch
their
campaign
would
be
a
key
factor.

Factor
five
is
an
important
lesson
from
Himachal
Pradesh.
The
vote
gap
between
the
Congress
and
BJP
was
less
than
one
percentage
point.
Yet
there
was
a
clear
pattern
in
voting
when
viewed
from
the
lens
of
the
economic
status
of
the
voter.
The
BJP
did
extremely
well
among
the
rich
and
its
vote
declines
when
one
moves
to
the
poor.
The
exact
reverse
was
true
in
the
case
of
the
Congress.
While
across
the
state,
there
was
less
than
a
one
percent
difference
in
the
vote
share,
in
the
case
of
the
poor,
the
vote
share
difference
was
a
massive
thirteen
percentage
points.
This
clearly
made
the
difference
in
defining
the
final
contours
of
the
verdict.
There
are
important
lessons
in
this
for
the
party
strategists
in
Karnataka.

Mining
baron
Janardhana
Reddy
announces
new
party,
to
contest
2023
Karnataka
polls
from
Gangavathi

The
final
factor
–
the
woman
vote.
Did
the
women
vote
too
tip
the
scales
in
favour
of
the
Congress
in
Karnataka?
In
a
tight
fight
every
factor
has
the
potential
of
contributing
to
a
defeat
or
propelling
one
towards
victory.
In
Himachal
Pradesh,
the
last
time
around
(in
2017)
the
post
poll
survey
of
Lokniti-CSDS
indicated
that
both
the
BJP
and
the
Congress
had
a
marginally
better
record
in
garnering
the
vote
of
men
as
compared
to
women.
This
time
around
there
was
an
interesting
two
percentage
point
difference
–
the
Congress
doing
better
among
women
and
the
BJP
being
ahead
among
men
voters.
While
the
BJP
saw
a
five
percentage
point
decline
in
votes
among
men
it
was
a
six
percentage
point
decline
among
women.
In
the
case
of
the
Congress
there
was
a
one
percentage
point
increase
in
the
share
of
men’s
vote
but
a
decisive
four
percentage
point
rise
in
its
share
of
the
women’s
vote.
Man
analysts
believed
this
too
made
a
difference.
This
again
could
be
an
important
lesson
for
parties
in
Karnataka.

As
parties
and
leaders
gear
up
for
an
interesting
and
intense
campaign
in
Karnataka,
all
these
lessons
from
the
last
poll
of
2022
could
well
provide
useful
insights.

(Dr.
Sandeep
Shastri
is
the
Vice
Chancellor
of
Jagran
Lakecity
University
and
a
keen
observer
of
Karnataka
politics
for
four
decades)

Disclaimer:
The
opinions
expressed
in
this
article
are
the
personal
opinions
of
the
author.
The
facts
and
opinions
appearing
in
the
article
do
not
reflect
the
views
of
OneIndia
and
OneIndia
does
not
assume
any
responsibility
or
liability
for
the
same.