2023 To Write 2024 Script

India

oi-Balbir Punj

Politics
is
chemistry,
and
not
mathematics.
Hence,
a
scenario
is
unlikely
where
all
the
opposition
parties
reach
a
perfect
understanding
on
the
names
of
candidates,
election
issues
and
have
complete
coordination
in
campaigning.

As
we
ring
out
2022
on
an
uncertain
note,
the
nine
state
elections
–
stretching
from
Telangana
to
Tripura
–
will
dominate
the
political
scenario
in
2023.
It
will
be
a
dress
rehearsal
for
the
next
Lok
Sabha
elections
slated
for
May
2024.
There’s
little
doubt
that
results
of
2023
Assembly
polls
will
shape
the
debate
and
narrative
for
2024.

Throughout
next
year,
BJP,
Congress,
AAP
and
regional
parties
will
be
in
an
election
mode.
We
have
a
busy
election
calendar
next
year.
Tripura,
Meghalaya
and
Nagaland
will
go
to
polls
in
February-March,
Karnataka
in
May
and
Madhya
Pradesh,
Rajasthan,
Chhattisgarh,
Mizoram
and
Telangana
in
November-December.

For
obvious
reasons,
all
opposition
parties
are
striving
hard
to
dislodge
BJP
from
the
prime
position
it
has
come
to
occupy
in
the
country’s
political
milieu
since
2014.
The
disparate
anti-BJP
groups
are
no
doubt
one
in
their
desire
to
decimate
Modi,
but
for
want
of
a
positive
agenda,
there’s
nothing
to
glue
them
as
a
cohesive
team.
While
fighting
against
BJP,
they
are
also
elbowing
and
undermining
each
other.
Their
fight
isn’t
to
replace
BJP
at
the
centre,
but
for
the
second
slot.

Can
the
opposition
parties
coalesce
around
a
common
programme
and
build
a
working
electoral
alliance
to
take
on
BJP
in
2024?
Looks
doubtful.
Congress,
out
of
all
the
opposition
parties,
has
still
the
largest
vote
share
of
about
20
percent.
But
it
suffers
from
some
inherent
flaws
–
which
makes
its
revival
difficult.
It
has
no
ideological
framework
to
motivate
its
cadres.
Over
decades,
the
party
has
reduced
itself
to
a
mere
electoral
machine,
surviving
on
outdated
clichés
of
Cold
War
vintage,
sans
any
missionary
spirit,
ideological
clarity
and
organisational
cohesion.

Average
vote
share
of
winners
in
Gujarat
assembly
polls
stood
at
53.48
per
cent:
ADR

To
differentiate
itself
from
the
BJP,
the
party
leadership,
bereft
of
ideological
moorings,
borrows
heavily
from
outdated
Marxist
lexicon.
Unfortunately
for
it,
Communism
is
a
failed
ideology,
rejected
the
world
over,
and
has
no
takers
whatsoever
among
the
young
aspirational
Indians.
On
top
of
all
this,
the
party
is
heavily
dependent
on
the
dynasty
for
leadership
–
an
anachronism
in
a
modern
egalitarian
democratic
world.
Rahul
Gandhi
terming
Veer
Savarkar
a
British
agent
and
calling
tribals
as
‘asli
malik’
(the
real
owners)
of
the
country
and
by
implication
defining
rest
of
Indians
as
some
sort
of
usurpers,
during
his
‘Bharat
Jodo
Yatra’,
are
examples
of
poor
ideological
mimicry.
It’s
bad
politics,
wrong
history
and
reeks
of
Communist
toxicity.

To
add
to
Congress
woes,
AAP
and
Trinamool
Congress
(TMC)
have
been
fast
gnawing
into
its
support
base.
TMC
too
is
ambitious
and
would
like
to
use
the
next
year
to
extend
its
political
presence
outside
West
Bengal.
Tripura
and
Meghalaya
are
on
Mamata
Banerjee’s
radar.
AAP
has
emphatically
decimated
Congress
in
Punjab
and
registered
its
presence
in
Goa
and
Gujarat.
Much
to
Congress
chagrin,
AAP
has
made
no
bones
about
its
national
ambitions.
The
party
surely
is
a
serious
player
in
the
2024
Lok
Sabha
polls.

However,
AAP
underperformed
expectations
in
Delhi
and
Gujarat;
and
was
a
non-starter
in
Himachal.
AAP
has
no
ideological
baggage
–
which
is
its
strength,
and
weakness
as
well.
In
other
words,
it
has
no
conviction
whatsoever.
This
ideological
vacuum,
no
doubt
gives
flexibility
to
the
party
and
allows
it
to
tailor
its
stand
on
various
issues,
depending
on
the
exigencies
of
a
given
situation.

While
in
Delhi
its
former
AAP
councillor
Tahir
Hussain’s
has
been
charged
with
leading
violent
Muslim
mobs
during
2020
Delhi
riots,
AAP
supremo
Arvind
Kejriwal
came
out
with
a
suggestion
to
have
Ganesh-Lakshmi
images
on
currency
notes
on
the
eve
of
Gujarat
elections,
obviously
to
curry
favour
with
Hindu
minded
Gujarat
electorate.
After
elections,
however,
none
has
heard
Arvind
Kejriwal
repeating
this
demand-
underlining
his
casual
approach
on
ideological
matters.

AAP’s
opportunistic
streak
has
its
limitations.
Running
with
hare
and
hunting
with
hounds,
doesn’t
always
work.
AAP
failed
to
make
a
dent
in
the
Hindu
base
of
BJP
in
Gujarat,
and
was
rejected
by
the
Muslim
voters
as
well.
Its
opportunistic
nationalism
could
also
make
coalition
building
with
other
anti-BJP
parties
difficult.

Almost
all
non-BJP
parties
are
competing
for
‘secular’ votes.
Lalu’s
RJD,
Nitish’s
JDU,
Stalin’s
DMK,
Jagan’s
YSR
Congress
or
KCR’s
Bharat
Rashtra
Samithi
(TRS)
practice
a
brand
of
‘secularism’,
an
euphemism
for
pandering
to
Islamic
and
Christian
fundamentalism
–
and
wouldn’t
accept
any
dilution
in
their
‘secular’
credentials.

Most
of
the
regional
parties
caricature
family
owned
firms
–
with
dynasties
calling
the
shots.
The
regional
satraps
are
ruthless
in
squashing
dissent,
brazenly
pander
to
communal
interests
and
shamelessly
practice
crony
capitalism.
None
of
them
can
claim
to
be
providing
a
clean,
honest,
corruption
free
administration,
or
democratic
governance
in
their
own
state.

The
BJP
has
maintained
its
electoral
dominance,
winning
five
of
the
seven
State
elections
including
Uttar
Pradesh
in
2022.
The
loss
in
Himachal
Pradesh
was
notional.
The
difference
in
percentage
of
votes
polled
by
winner
and
loser
was
less
than
one
percent.

The
biggest
asset
of
BJP
is
the
image
of
the
Prime
Minister,
at
home
and
abroad.
He
is
a
matchless
crowd
puller,
an
engaging
orator,
a
master
communicator,
and
a
mass
leader,
with
a
spotless
record
spanning
decades
of
public
life.
Modi’s
personal
popularity
far
exceeds
that
of
his
party.
With
a
77
per
cent
net
approval
rating,
according
to
Morning
Consult’s
Global
Leader
tracker,
Modi
is
easily
far
ahead
of
his
political
rivals.

After
recording
resounding
victories
in
Gujarat,
UP,
Uttarakhand,
Goa
and
Manipur
in
2022,
the
workaholic
BJP
leadership
is
not
going
to
rest.
None
of
the
top
shots
–
Narendra
Modi,
Amit
Shah
or
Jagat
Prakash
Nadda
–
are
going
for
a
New
Year
break
like
Rahul
Gandhi.
They
would
be
busy
giving
shape
to
their
war
plans
for
the
nine
states
that
will
go
to
polls
next
year,
and
account
for
116
Lok
Sabha
Seats.
Many
of
the
states
had
voted
differently
in
the
previous
Lok
Sabha
and
Assembly
elections.
In
2018,
the
BJP
lost
in
Rajasthan,
Madhya
Pradesh
and
Chhattisgarh,
but
vanquished
the
Congress
in
Lok
Sabha
elections
a
year
later.

In
Rajasthan,
Madhya
Pradesh
and
Chhattisgarh,
Congress
is
riven
by
factionalism
and
infighting.
BJP
too
is
in
difficulties
in
Karnataka
and
needs
to
put
its
house
in
order.
However,
in
Telangana,
the
BJP
is
aggressive
and
may
succeed
in
dislodging
the
TRS.

What
are
the
prospects
of
a
strong,
united
Opposition?
Very
dim
indeed.
There’s
nothing
else
to
bind
them
together,
except
virulent
hate
for
Modi.
The
eight-year
Modi
regime
would
be
long
remembered
for
demonetisation,
war
against
corruption,
reaching
succour
to
crores
of
needy
citizens
without
leakage
through
a
multitude
of
welfare
schemes,
a
successful
fight
against
Covid,
effective
efforts
for
restoration
of
normalcy
in
Jammu
&
Kashmir,
construction
of
Ram
temple
in
Ayodhya,
renovation
of
Kashi
Vishwanath,
massive
strides
in
infrastructure
development,
and
above
all,
elevating
India’s
stature
in
the
global
arena.

Can
any
opposition
party
dare
say
it
would
reverse
any
of
these
moves
if
voted
to
power?
Barring
demonetisation,
opposition
parties
wouldn’t
even
initiate
a
discussion
on
any
of
these
subjects,
for
they
know
it
would
only
recoil
on
them.
What
if
all
the
parties
decide
to
form
a
united
front?

In
an
unlikely
scenario
where
all
the
opposition
parties
reach
a
perfect
understanding
on
the
names
of
candidates,
election
issues
and
have
complete
coordination
in
campaigning,
will
all
the
anti-BJP
votes
aggregate
against
the
ruling
party?
Unfortunately,
for
the
Opposition,
the
answer
is:
No.
Politics
is
chemistry,
and
not
mathematics.
The
answer
to
‘two
plus
two’
is
unpredictable
in
politics
–
it
need
not
always
be
four.
The
final
answer
can
range
between
zero
and
22
or
even
222.

Narendra
Modi
in
Indian
public
life
is
like
a
catalytic
agent
in
a
chemical
reaction
–
his
mere
presence
in
an
election
campaign
is
enough
to
upset
all
caste-regional
calculations.
Let’s
wait
what
2023
has
in
store
for
us,
for
it
would
leave
its
lingering
shadow
on
the
following
year,
2024.

(Mr.
Balbir
Punj
is
a
Former
Member
of
Parliament
and
a
Columnist.
He
can
be
reached
at:
punjbalbir@gmail.com)

Disclaimer:
The
opinions
expressed
in
this
article
are
the
personal
opinions
of
the
author.
The
facts
and
opinions
appearing
in
the
article
do
not
reflect
the
views
of
OneIndia
and
OneIndia
does
not
assume
any
responsibility
or
liability
for
the
same.